Back in the cold war era India being a NAM nation but a little tilted towards USSR and also faced many challenges with US. But after the USSR disintegration and India’s LPG reforms in 1991, this country became important for USA, as trade- investment rose. With the rise of China, India became strategically more important to US as China, a security threat to India and challenges USA’s hegemony. But in recent times this relationship is facing multiple issues.
Through out the time India and US relation got close. Rise in trade & investment, partnerships like I2U2, QUAD formed to counter China on Middle-East and Indo Pacific region, Civil nuclear deal got signed, defence pacts formed like LEMOA, COMCASA & BECA. India’s defence import from US increased in these years, US also supports many technological and scientific developments in India, US also support India’s bid to become a Permanent member at UNSC. A huge number of Indians are working in US and by that India gets billions of dollars of remittances each year. Indian also frequently conducts major army drills with US. These shows a long-term strategic partnership between these two nations.
But there are challenges as well, as India faces too much export dependency on US market on many sectors like- IT, textile, leather, etc. So, if US stops buying from India these sectors will face massive issues. India faces data security and digital sovereignty issues with US as most of the tech companies are from that country. US also maintains relation with Pakistan and provides them Defence equipment, Fighter Jets(F16) and billions of dollars Grants in the name of fighting terrorism. Facing the security dilemma with Pakistan, India has raised this issue multiple times with US, but it seems they don’t really care about India’s security.
If we only focus on present, it seems Donald Trump’s 2nd tenure is problematic for India-US relation. Trump puts highest tariffs (50%) on India which directly impacts our GDP growth and overall exports, his attitude towards H1V visa may create problem for India’s IT sector as well. His new ambition of G2 (US+CHINA) world order may create another challenge for India’s long-term growth. His derogatory remarks on India made Indians more anti US, and now even he is getting closer to Pakistan. In US, racism against Indians have increased in recent times because of his far right-wing ideologies. This type of behaviour is definitely not expected from a friendly nation.
But we need to understand one thing, according to Realist thought, in Geopolitics there is no permanent friend or enemy – only permanent national interest matters for every country. Also, a democratic country’s policies don’t rely only on its leader but it also relies on its – people, Business associations, bureaucrats, long term military strategies, political leaders’ mindset, etc. In US itself many prominent personalities are against Trumps attitude towards India.
India needs to stay strong in this situation as Trump wants India to bow down in front of his biased demands and that’s why he is creating more and more pressure on India. But if India stay strong this time, it will not give an upper age for negotiation but it will increase India’s credibility as a strong nation to the world even more. Power always shakes hand with power, so India has to become more economically and militarily strong so that other major powers also respect and maintain friendship with India.
But if we think pragmatically, there is a high chance that even if Trump behave like this in his tenure but after that India-US relations will get close. US needs India to counter China in Asia and US will also need one of the largest markets in the world which have a growing economy. Also, India needs US’s market, investment, technology and support to become a strong & developed country. Although India will definitely become more cautious in this relation.